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 statistical manifold


Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention

Bathula, Satwik, Joshi, Anand A.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multiplicative gating is widely used in neural architectures and has recently been applied to attention layers to improve performance and training stability in large language models. Despite the success of gated attention, the mathematical implications of gated attention mechanisms remain poorly understood. We study attention through the geometry of its representations by modeling outputs as mean parameters of Gaussian distributions and analyzing the induced Fisher--Rao geometry. We show that ungated attention operator is restricted to intrinsically flat statistical manifolds due to its affine structure, while multiplicative gating enables non-flat geometries, including positively curved manifolds that are unattainable in the ungated setting. These results establish a geometric expressivity gap between ungated and gated attention. Empirically, we show that gated models exhibit higher representation curvature and improved performance on tasks requiring nonlinear decision boundaries whereas they provide no consistent advantage on tasks with linear decision boundaries. Furthermore, we identify a structured regime in which curvature accumulates under composition, yielding a systematic depth amplification effect.


Robust Sequential Tracking via Bounded Information Geometry and Non-Parametric Field Actions

Rodriguez, Carlos C.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Standard sequential inference architectures are compromised by a normalizability crisis when confronted with extreme, structured outliers. By operating on unbounded parameter spaces, state-of-the-art estimators lack the intrinsic geometry required to appropriately sever anomalies, resulting in unbounded covariance inflation and mean divergence. This paper resolves this structural failure by analyzing the abstraction sequence of inference at the meta-prior level (S_2). We demonstrate that extremizing the action over an infinite-dimensional space requires a non-parametric field anchored by a pre-prior, as a uniform volume element mathematically does not exist. By utilizing strictly invariant Delta (or ν) Information Separations on the statistical manifold, we physically truncate the infinite tails of the spatial distribution. When evaluated as a Radon-Nikodym derivative against the base measure, the active parameter space compresses into a strictly finite, normalizable probability droplet. Empirical benchmarks across three domains--LiDAR maneuvering target tracking, high-frequency cryptocurrency order flow, and quantum state tomography--demonstrate that this bounded information geometry analytically truncates outliers, ensuring robust estimation without relying on infinite-tailed distributional assumptions.


Categorical Flow Matching on Statistical Manifolds

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce Statistical Flow Matching (SFM), a novel and mathematically rigorous flow-matching framework on the manifold of parameterized probability measures inspired by the results from information geometry. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the discrete generation problem by instantiat-ing SFM on the manifold of categorical distributions whose geometric properties remain unexplored in previous discrete generative models. Utilizing the Fisher information metric, we equip the manifold with a Riemannian structure whose intrinsic geometries are effectively leveraged by following the shortest paths of geodesics. We develop an efficient training and sampling algorithm that overcomes numerical stability issues with a diffeomorphism between manifolds. Our distinctive geometric perspective of statistical manifolds allows us to apply optimal transport during training and interpret SFM as following the steepest direction of the natural gradient. Unlike previous models that rely on variational bounds for likelihood estimation, SFM enjoys the exact likelihood calculation for arbitrary probability measures. We manifest that SFM can learn more complex patterns on the statistical manifold where existing models often fail due to strong prior assumptions. Comprehensive experiments on real-world generative tasks ranging from image, text to biological domains further demonstrate that SFM achieves higher sampling quality and likelihood than other discrete diffusion or flow-based models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ccr-cheng/


Spectral Concentration at the Edge of Stability: Information Geometry of Kernel Associative Memory

Tamamori, Akira

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances using Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR) have demonstrated that learning can sculpt these landscapes to achieve capacities far exceeding classical limits [1-3]. Our previous phenomenological analysis identified a Ridge of Optimization where stability is maximized via a mechanism we termed Spectral Concentration, defined as a state where the weight spectrum exhibits a sharp hierarchy [4]. However, a deeper question remains: Why does the learning dynamics self-organize into this specific spectral state? Why does the system operate at the brink of instability? T o answer these questions, we must look beyond the Euclidean geometry of the weight parameters and consider the intrinsic geometry of the probability distributions they represent. This is the domain of Information Geometry [5]. In this work, we reinterpret the KLR Hopfield network as a statistical manifold equipped with a Fisher-Rao metric.


Learning under Distributional Drift: Reproducibility as an Intrinsic Statistical Resource

Zaichyk, Sofiya

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Statistical learning under distributional drift remains insufficiently characterized: when each observation alters the data-generating law, classical generalization bounds can collapse. We introduce a new statistical primitive, the reproducibility budget $C_T$, which quantifies a system's finite capacity for statistical reproducibility - the extent to which its sampling process can remain governed by a consistent underlying distribution in the presence of both exogenous change and endogenous feedback. Formally, $C_T$ is defined as the cumulative Fisher-Rao path length of the coupled learner-environment evolution, measuring the total distributional motion accumulated during learning. From this construct we derive a drift-feedback generalization bound of order $O(T^{-1/2} + C_T/T)$, and we prove a matching minimax lower bound showing that this rate is minimax-optimal. Consequently, the results establish a reproducibility speed limit: no algorithm can achieve smaller worst-case generalization error than that imposed by the average Fisher-Rao drift rate $C_T/T$ of the data-generating process. The framework situates exogenous drift, adaptive data analysis, and performative prediction within a common geometric structure, with $C_T$ emerging as the intrinsic quantity measuring distributional motion across these settings.


Self-Improving AI Agents through Self-Play

Chojecki, Przemyslaw

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We extend the moduli-theoretic framework of psychometric batteries to the domain of dynamical systems. While previous work established the AAI capability score as a static functional on the space of agent representations, this paper formalizes the agent as a flow $ν_r$ parameterized by computational resource $r$, governed by a recursive Generator-Verifier-Updater (GVU) operator. We prove that this operator generates a vector field on the parameter manifold $Θ$, and we identify the coefficient of self-improvement $κ$ as the Lie derivative of the capability functional along this flow. The central contribution of this work is the derivation of the Variance Inequality, a spectral condition that is sufficient (under mild regularity) for the stability of self-improvement. We show that a sufficient condition for $κ> 0$ is that, up to curvature and step-size effects, the combined noise of generation and verification must be small enough. We then apply this formalism to unify the recent literature on Language Self-Play (LSP), Self-Correction, and Synthetic Data bootstrapping. We demonstrate that architectures such as STaR, SPIN, Reflexion, GANs and AlphaZero are specific topological realizations of the GVU operator that satisfy the Variance Inequality through filtration, adversarial discrimination, or grounding in formal systems.




Enforcing Latent Euclidean Geometry in Single-Cell VAEs for Manifold Interpolation

Palma, Alessandro, Rybakov, Sergei, Hetzel, Leon, Günnemann, Stephan, Theis, Fabian J.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Latent space interpolations are a powerful tool for navigating deep generative models in applied settings. An example is single-cell RNA sequencing, where existing methods model cellular state transitions as latent space interpolations with variational autoencoders, often assuming linear shifts and Euclidean geometry. However, unless explicitly enforced, linear interpolations in the latent space may not correspond to geodesic paths on the data manifold, limiting methods that assume Euclidean geometry in the data representations. We introduce FlatVI, a novel training framework that regularises the latent manifold of discrete-likelihood variational autoencoders towards Euclidean geometry, specifically tailored for modelling single-cell count data. By encouraging straight lines in the latent space to approximate geodesic interpolations on the decoded single-cell manifold, FlatVI enhances compatibility with downstream approaches that assume Euclidean latent geometry. Experiments on synthetic data support the theoretical soundness of our approach, while applications to time-resolved single-cell RNA sequencing data demonstrate improved trajectory reconstruction and manifold interpolation.


Geometric Gaussian Approximations of Probability Distributions

Da Costa, Nathaël, Mucsányi, Bálint, Hennig, Philipp

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Approximating complex probability distributions, such as Bayesian posterior distributions, is of central interest in many applications. We study the expressivity of geometric Gaussian approximations. These consist of approximations by Gaussian pushforwards through diffeomorphisms or Riemannian exponential maps. We first review these two different kinds of geometric Gaussian approximations. Then we explore their relationship to one another. We further provide a constructive proof that such geometric Gaussian approximations are universal, in that they can capture any probability distribution. Finally, we discuss whether, given a family of probability distributions, a common diffeomorphism can be found to obtain uniformly high-quality geometric Gaussian approximations for that family.